The recent spike in the energy price affected consumers, but it turned into a political issue around the globe. The White House would be the main attraction of this storm as the midterm election is coming up for the US.
The energy price indeed is one of the key elements of higher inflation that pushed central banks to react. The Fed might not provide excessive rate hikes if the oil price remained controlled. In that case, investors should monitor how the G7 leaders provide market sentiment this weekend, where any agenda regarding the price stability would relieve the financial market.
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Forex Technical Outlook for 27 June 2022 to 01 July 2022
The Eurozone inflation has seemed to be losing its position from the latest business surveys, but consumers have started cutting their spending. Investors will see consumer confidence this week along with the ECB President Lagarde’s speech. Moreover, the BoE and Fed will speak, but the lack of high-impact news might keep the week corrective.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades within a bullish pressure where the recent symmetrical triangle formation in the daily chart shows a strong bullish possibility for the US Dollar. The price remained steady above the dynamic 20 EMA, where the near-term support level is at the 103.41 level. In that case, the bullish outlook is present as long as the price trades above the 103.41 level, where a bullish triangle breakout would extend the buying momentum in the coming days.
EUR/USD ended the trading week with a lot of volatility where the weekly candle showed a buyer’s attempt and failure to breach the 1.0604 key resistance level. Although the weekly RSI started moving up from the oversold 30 level, the price remained below the dynamic 20 EMA and static 1.0604 resistance level.
The above technical analysis indicates the daily price structure of EURUSD, where the dynamic 20 EMA is working as immediate resistance. The buying pressure from the previous swing low appeared with a corrective bullish pressure within a channel while the RSI remained closer to the 50 level.
Based on the daily structure, the selling possibility in this pair is strong, where any bearish pressure from 1.0560 to 1.0660 area would extend the bearish momentum towards the 1.0300 area. On the other hand, a strong counter-impulsive bullish momentum is needed to indicate the trend reversal. In that case, any strong bullish daily candle above the 1.0660 level would extend the momentum towards the 1.0800 area.
GBP/USD visited the lowest level in the last two years, where the recent weekly rejection from the 1.1940 level showed a strong sell-side liquidity grab, the first sign of the possible long-term bullish trend. Moreover, the weekly RSI started rebounding higher from the oversold zone while the weekly resistance is at the 1.2665 level.
This technical analysis shows how the daily GBPUSD price trades within extreme volatility in the recent trading days. Multiple Doji candles appeared in the daily chart, while the dynamic 20 EMA remained as near-term resistance. Moreover, the RSI was flat after spiking from the oversold 30 levels.
GBP/USD price remained at a crucial level where the bearish liquidity grab in the higher timeframe chart still needs time to match the daily price action. In that case, any bullish breakout with a daily candle above the 1.2400 level would be the first sign of a possible trend reversal in this pair. On the other hand, as long as the price remains lower below the 1.2400 level, the bearish possibility toward the 1.2000 is intact.
After two consecutive bearish trading weeks, AUD/USD formed a weekly bullish candle where the broader price trades above the 0.6831 key support level. However, as the bullish recovery is not solid, the higher timeframe price action is not satisfactory to consider a bullish trend.
This technical analysis shows the daily chart of AUDUSD where corrective price action was seen in the previous week after having a bearish pressure from the 0.7068 level. The RSI remains above the 30 levels, while the dynamic 20 EMA indicates a pending bullish correction.
Therefore, the primary outlook of this pair is bullish toward the dynamic 20 EMA from where selling pressure may appear. On the other hand, the 0.6831 would be the crucial point for this pair, where breaking below this level would sign further fall towards the 0.6600 level.
The bullish trend in the USD/JPY pair resumed from the 16 May 2022 low, but the last two weekly candles appeared with the sign of excessive volatility. Although the RSI is above the oversold 70 level, a minor correction is pending towards the 130.80 event level.
The above technical analysis shows how the daily candle moved higher from the 20 DMA and remained steady above the 134.55 static support level. On the other hand, the RSI seems bearish as it failed to stay above the 70 overbought level.
Based on the current price structure, the long-term market trend is still active although a corrective pressure may appear. In that case, the bullish opportunity is present until the price shows any strong exhaustion below the dynamic 20 EMA.
XAU/USD passed the week with higher volatility where the multiple Doji candle formed in the daily chart. However, the price is backed by a bearish structure break and dynamic resistance, indicating a bearish pressure.
This technical analysis is the XAU/USD daily chart where the selling pressure remained steady below the 1847.13 resistance level. The RSI is near the 50 neutral level, indicating a neutral momentum.
Based on the daily chart, XAUUSD has a higher possibility of extending the bearish pressure, but taking sell trades after breaking below the trendline would be a conservative approach. On the other hand, a bullish break and daily candle above the 1848.00 level would alter the current market structure and initiate a bullish possibility.
Bitcoin miners have seen to provide a change in their behavior since March 2020, going from unprecedented profitability to margin squeezing. The 70% price loss with the dip to the 17600.00 level pushed miners' wallets to send a huge amount to exchanges. However, the majority of miners remain active, as shown by the data, but it is not sufficient to say that Bitcoin is a trend reversal.
Although the broader market direction for BTC/USD remained bearish, investors should closely monitor the recent two-bar bullish reversal from the 18000.00 level that came with a higher volume. The price needs to break the near-term resistance of 24000.00 level to indicate the first sign of bullish pressure.
This technical analysis shows how the Bitcoin price remained steady below the dynamic 20 EMA, but the RSI rebounded from the 30 levels. Moreover, the price consecutively made higher highs after testing the 18000.00 bottom.
Based on the BTC/USD daily chart, a bullish break of structure above the 24000.00 would be the first sign of a bullish trend but any bearish rejection from the dynamic 20 EMA would provide a high probable bearish opportunity.
The broader market outlook for the coming trading days will be against the US Dollar as investors may try profit-taking from USD bulls. However, the fresh market sentiment will appear from the NFP release.