Forex Forecast & Forex Technical Outlook for 25 April 2022 to 29 April 2022

The global financial market has experienced a highly volatile week where the US Dollar was the ultimate winner of the battle. Although several economic releases favored the Euro, it failed to hold the momentum below the 1.0800 level against the US Dollar. Moreover, GBPUSD and AUDUSD also joined the selling party with a possibility of an extension of the current momentum.

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Forex Technical Outlook for 25 April 2022 to 29 April 2022

Several economic releases from the Eurozone and the US would grab investors' attention towards the EURUSD price where the divergence between the Fed and ECB monetary policy is likely to drive this pair. On the other hand, the RBA policy would come with a positive factor for AUD if CPI comes at a tolerable level. The Bank of Japan would also attract investors' attention by keeping the policy unchanged, although the USDJPY trades at a multi-year high.

The US Dollar Index shows a bullish continuation pattern where a stable price above the 100.00 psychological number would indicate further upside pressure in the price. In that case, the primary aim is to test the 102.94 level, which is the highest level since January 2020. On the other hand, a break below the 100.00 level would open room for testing the 97.79 static support level before showing further bullish pressure. 

EUR/USD

The selling pressure in the EUR/USD weekly chart is influenced by consecutive three bearish weeks without testing the oversold 30 levels in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As a result, the possibility of testing the 2020 low at 1.0630 is likely to happen before showing any bullish sign.

 

The above technical analysis shows the daily chart of EURUSD where the price faced multiple bearish rejections from the dynamic 20 EMA. Moreover, the most recent failure to break above the 1.0936 static resistance level increased the selling possibility toward the 1.0635 key support level. In the indicator window, the RSI remained steady below the neutral 50 level, possibly testing the oversold 30 level.

Based on the current price action, the EUR may remain under pressure against the US Dollar by reaching the 1.0635 key support level before showing any bullish sign. On the other hand, any bullish correction towards the dynamic 20 EMA would be an opportunity to increase the bearish position until the price breaks above the 1.0936 level.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD ended the week with a massive 1.5% or 200 pips loss on a single trading day. In the weekly timeframe, the price trades within a bearish channel where the recent bearish daily close increased the possibility of testing the 1.2677 key support level. Furthermore, the bearish pressure remained steady below the dynamic 20 EMA while the RSI is yet to test the oversold 30 level, increasing the possibility of selling pressure in the price.

 

This technical analysis shows the daily chart of GBP/USD where the price moved below the symmetrical triangle that created a divergence with the RSI. However, the RSI level is hovering at the 30 level while the dynamic 20 EMA is working as a near-term resistance level.

Based on the daily context, the gap between the price and dynamic 20 EMA indicates a possibility of a bullish correction in the weekly birth period that may open opportunities for adding selling momentum to the trend. However, the bearish pressure towards the target of 1.2677 is valid as long as the price trades below the 1.2986 level. 

AUD/USD

AUD/USD joined bearish parties like EUR/USD and GBP/USD and made a 2% loss from the weekly opening. As a result, the price broke below the bullish channel with a weekly close below the dynamic 20 EMA. Moreover, the weekly RSI is yet to test the 30 level, which is currently just below the neutral 50 level.

 

This technical analysis shows the daily chart of AUD/USD where the price created a gap with the dynamic 20 EMA. However, the RSI is still bearish with the possibility of testing the oversold 30 level.

Therefore, the bearish trend in the AUD/USD might grab the liquidity from 0.7165 to 0.7092 area before showing any bullish sign. In that case, the primary aim for this pair is to test the 0.7165 support level before showing a bullish sign. On the other hand, as the gap between the price and dynamic 20 EMA has widened, any bullish correction towards channel support would be a bearish opportunity. 

USD/JPY

USD/JPY bullish pressure remained steady by eliminating all technical indicators that reached the oversold area. However, the steady bullish pressure above 2015 high is likely to test the 130.00 key psychological level in the coming days.

 

The above technical analysis shows how the price made a strong impulsive bullish pressure with a stable price above the 127.47 support level. Moreover, the dynamic 20 EMA is below the price and aimed higher while the RSI is at overbought above the 70 level.

Based on the current price structure, investors may experience further bullish pressure in the daily chart, where the primary aim is to test the 130.00 psychological level. On the other hand, the bullish pressure is valid as long as the price trades above the 127.47 support level, where a bearish daily candle below the 127.30 would increase the bearish possibility toward the 125.18 level.

XAU/USD 

Although the gold price moved higher from the rectangle pattern breakout, it rejected the bullishness with a hammer before moving back to the rectangle area. However, the weekly price chart still remains bullish where the dynamic 20 EMA is at the 1890.48 level, which is the lower level of the rectangle pattern.

 

This technical analysis shows that the daily chart of XAUUSD moved below the dynamic 20 EMA and faces minor support from the trendline, which emerged from February 2022 low. On the other hand, the RSI remained bearish below the neutral 50 level, possibly testing the oversold 30 area.

Although the long-term outlook is bullish, the XAUUSD daily price may come below the trendline to grab the retail liquidity. In that case, any bullish opportunity from 1900.00 to 1880.00 would be a potential buying opportunity in this pair.

BTC/USD

The selling pressure in the BTC/USD price remained strong as the most recent bullish symmetrical triangle breakout failed to hold the momentum above the 48k level. Although the price moved higher by 17.45% from the triangle breakout, it moved below the dynamic 20 EMA on the daily chart.

Among various metrics, the 30-day MVRV ratio shows that level is hovering at -8% level, which is the lowest level for BTC in the last few times. Therefore, based on the MVRV ratio, BTCUSD faced a bottom with a possibility of recovering the price towards the 42600.00 level. On the other hand, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) shows that the limitation to testing the 44K level is low, where any bullish price action could take the price up easily.

 

This technical analysis shows the daily chart of BTC/USD where the recent price is corrective above the bullish channel support. Moreover, the RSI is bearish below the 50 level with a possibility of testing the oversold 30 area.

Based on the current price action, a bearish daily candle below the 38500.00 level has a higher possibility of testing the 32980.89 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, an immediate rebound with a bullish daily close above the dynamic 20 EMA may increase the price towards the 48186.59 resistance level.

Overall, the US Dollar may lose its ground if the GDP number misses the expectation. On the other hand, further volatility from the BOJ outlook and AUD CPI may work as trend-changing events.

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