Forex Forecast & Forex Technical Outlook for 21 November 2022 to 25 November 2022

Following the previous week’s CPI report, the headline PPI showed a 0.2% increase while the retail sales showed a better-than-expected 1.3% in October. The upside pressure came from a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles and a 4.1% rise in gasoline stations.

The October CPI data for the UK, Japan, and Canada showed a negative picture last week. The headline CPI for the UK increased by 11.1% year-over-year, whereas the fuel price increased by nearly 90%.

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Forex Technical Outlook for 21 November 2022 to 25 November 2022

The upcoming trading days are going to be eventful as the RBNZ central bank will meet, while some important releases are pending for the UK and Europe. Moreover, the FOMC meeting minutes will grab investors' attention from where a clue of the upcoming rate decision may come.  

Let’s see the important events from this week:

• RBA Gov Lowe Speaks on Tuesday
• NZD Official Cash Rate on Wednesday
• French Flash Services PMI on Wednesday
• German Flash Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday
• GBP Flash Manufacturing & Service PMI on Wednesday
• FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday

Let’s proceed with the technical projection for the US Dollar Index (DXY):

The extensive selling pressure in the DXY daily chart found ground by reaching the 105.68- 104.63 demand zone, from where a bullish pressure may come.

Therefore, any buying signal in the intraday DXY price could offer a long opportunity towards the target of 109.26 level. On the other hand, breaking below the 104.50 level could extend the loss toward the 101.38 support level.

EUR/USD

In the previous weekly outlook for EUR/USD, bulls managed to reach the key demand zone but ended the trading week with a corrective momentum instead of an immediate bearish rebound.

 

This technical analysis indicates how the daily price of EUR/USD formed multiple indecision candlesticks in the supply area.

The interesting fact about this pair is the new swing high formation above the August 2022 high, which is at the 1.0480 level. The new swing high might work as a valuable resistance for this week and investors might experience selling pressure until the price breaks out above it.

The fixed range high volume indicator shows the highest active level in November 2022 is at 1.0341, which is near the current price. The dynamic 20 Day EMA created a gap with the price while the MACD Histogram started to lose its bullish momentum.

The primary aim for the EUR/USD is to look for bearish opportunities if the daily candle closes below the 1.0270 support level. In that case, the selling pressure could extend toward the 0.9942 level.

On the other hand, the new swing high above the 1.0480 level could increase the volatility in the price before aiming for the 1.0785 level.

• EUR/USD support levels to look at: 1.0270, 0.9942
• EUR/USD resistance levels to look at: 1.0480, 1.0785.

GBP/USD

As per the previous GBP/USD price prediction bulls extended the momentum but failed to reach the top of the ascending channel before moving sideways. Therefore, the buying momentum is still potent in this pair, where a minor bearish correction is pending.  

 

This technical analysis shows how the price trades above the high volume level in the daily GBP/USD price. Moreover, the dynamic 20 EMA is below the price, aimed higher, while the MACD shows a buying momentum. 

As the price formed a selling pressure by making a new swing high at the 1.2029 level, the primary outlook for this pair is bearish towards the dynamic 20 EMA area. However, a break below the ascending channel is needed to indicate a trend change and more toward the 1.1060 support level. 

On the other hand, a bullish rejection from the 1.1563 to 1.1650 area could offer a buying possibility, where the ultimate target is to test the 1.2289 resistance level.

• GBP/USD support levels to look at: 1.1563.
• GBP/USD resistance levels to look at: 1.2289.

AUD/USD

Based on the AUD/USD previous weekly outlook, the price reached the 0.6762 resistance level and formed a bearish reversal candlestick in the daily chart. It indicates sellers' presence in the market that already made more than 100 pips of gains. 

 

This technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair shows how bears are active in the market after forming a new swing high at the 0.6796 level. However, the immediate bearish pressure is backed by a strong bullish impulsive pressure, where special attention is needed before going short in this instrument.

Based on the visible range high volume level, the most active level in November 2022 is at 0.6466 level. Therefore, the overall outlook will be bearish until bears form a breakdown below the 0.6466 level.

The dynamic 20-day EMA is still below the current price, while the MACD Histogram is bullish.

Based on the current outlook, a bearish correction is pending in this pair but any buying pressure from the 0.6548 to 0.6466 area could offer a bullish trend continuation opportunity. However, the break below the 0.6450 level with a daily candle could increase the possibility of reaching the 0.6386 support level.

• AUD/USD support levels to look at: 0.6548, 0.6466
• AUD/USD resistance levels to look at: 0.6796.

USD/JPY

After a solid breakout, supported by the change in volume, USD/JPY ended the trading week with a corrective momentum. In that case, a proper bearish trend continuation pattern needs proper mitigation and rejection in the daily price.

 

This technical analysis shows how the massive selling pressure in the USD/JPY daily price came from the 146.94- 145.20 supply zone, with a drop-base-drop formation. Now, traders from that demand zone need to fill their orders, which is possible if the daily price shows a discount to bears. 

As the recent price completed the week with a corrective momentum, it needs a solid breakout before offering a trading opportunity.

The dynamic 20-day EMA is above the current price, while the MACD Histogram is losing its bearish momentum.

Based on the current price prediction for USD/JPY, a bullish daily candle above the 140.80 level would increase the possibility of mitigating the 146.94- 145.20 supply zone.

On the other hand, the bearish continuation opportunity needs a bearish daily close below the 137.63 level, which could open room for testing the 130.42 level. 

• USD/JPY support areas to look at: 137.63
• USD/JPY Resistance levels to focus: 140.78.

XAU/USD 

As per the previous XAU/USD weekly price projection, bulls extended the pressure and ended the week by reaching the immediate supply zone at the 1808.29 to 1784.73 area. As the price reached the key supply area and formed a bearish reversal candlestick, we can expect the selling pressure to extend this week.

 

The broader outlook of this pair is still bullish as it trades higher from the descending channel breakout. The fixed range high volume in November 2022 is still below the 20 DMA level, indicating solid buying pressure from the bottom. 

This technical analysis shows the daily price of XAU/USD, where the bearish pressure appeared by making a new swing high at the 1786.62 level. A bearish correction is also pending from the mean reversion with the 20-day EMA level, while MACD Histogram is still bearish.

Based on the daily price structure of XAU/USD, the selling pressure is potent as it trades below the 1786.82 swing high. In that case, bears have a higher possibility of lowering the price toward the 1720.00 level.

On the other hand, an immediate bullish recovery and a daily candle above the 1786.62 level could influence the price to move within a consolidation before setting a stable trend.

• XAU/USD support level to look at: 1720.00
• XAU/USD resistance levels to look at: 1786.62.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin price has seen several industries burnt since the previous year. The first one on the list was Terra’s implosion and now FTX’s bankruptcy.

On the other hand, crypto enthusiast Micheal Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management has warned that the crypto market is over-leveraged. According to his opinion, the excessive retailers' involvement in this industry could experience the mother of all crashes in history.

Another key metric to anticipate the BTC price is the correlation between Bitcoin and the US Stock market, which is at 0.519 after dropping from 0.644 in a month. Moreover, the 90-day correlation between these two markets has changed to 0.435 from 0.519. It is a sign that the crypto market is not taking cues from the US stock market. 

 

This technical analysis indicates how the bearish pennant pattern formed in the BTC/USD daily chart, where a bearish daily candle below the 15,500.00 level could extend the selling pressure in the coming days. 

The alternative trading approach is to find a bullish triangle breakout and form at least one higher high in the daily price before offering a long opportunity.

• BTC/USD support level to look at: 15,500.00
• BTC/USD resistance level to look at: 18,166.87.

The overall outlook in major pairs is positive for the US Dollar as there are sufficient signs that other currencies have reached the peak. However, investors should closely monitor the FOMC meeting minutes to find the true price direction for the US Dollar.

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