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Forex Forecast & Forex Technical Outlook for 08 April 2024 to 12 April 2024

Forex Forecast & Forex Technical Outlook for 08 April 2024 to 12 April 2024

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, exceeding every estimate provided to Bloomberg. The continued strength in employment suggests that policymakers at the Federal Reserve are under less incentive to reduce the target range of the fed funds rate. In recent remarks, FOMC members have emphasized the job market's underlying momentum as justification for delaying any adjustments until further inflation data is available.

Significant economic sentiment data from emerging economies and the G10 was released last week. The closely followed Q1 Tankan survey of business sentiment conducted by the Bank of Japan provided indications that the Japanese economy could experience a gradual recovery over the year. Conversely, official March PMIs for China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors surpassed expectations, indicating that the economy will have a strong start to 2024.

In the fourth quarter, household net worth increased across all wealth categories. Upon adjustment to 2000 levels, household net worth has surpassed its initial apex observed after the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2012. An upsurge in mutual fund and corporate equity holdings was the principal catalyst for this expansion.

President Biden signed the final appropriations measure for fiscal year 2024 into law on March 23, concluding an almost year-long budget process. During this period, the government implemented four short-term continuing resolutions to ensure operations continued. Nonetheless, fiscal challenges at the federal level remain unresolved.

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Forex Technical Outlook for 08 April 2024 to 12 April 2024

Let’s see the list of events to look at this week:

  • US Core CPI m/m on Wednesday
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday
  • US Core PPI m/m on Thursday
  • The UK GDP m/m on Thursday
  • The US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday

Let’s see the market outlook from the weekly forecast:


The dollar and bond yields rose on Friday in response to a substantial expansion in March U.S. payrolls, which prompted investors to reevaluate their anticipations concerning interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Labor Department reports that nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, exceeding the 200,000 increase predicted by economists and potentially deferring any imminent rate cuts.

This information caused U.S. Treasury yields to rise due to speculation that the Federal Reserve might delay rate decreases. Futures on U.S. interest rates decreased the probability of a reduction in June to 54.4%.

Stock prices have reached all-time highs because investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin a series of rate reductions in June.

Futures on the three major U.S. stock indices partially recovered from the previous day's decline of over 1%, prompted by hawkish Fed remarks and tensions in the Middle East, despite an initial decline in response to the employment data.

Having obtained the payroll figures, investors will shift their focus towards the forthcoming release of March's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is expected to provide additional insights into their anticipations concerning Fed actions.


In the daily chart of EUR/USD, a volatile market condition is present, where the 14-day RSI showed a rebound from the oversold zone. Moreover, dynamic Moving Averages are flat, which suggests a corrective market outlook.

Based on this structure, this week’s price action will need confirmation after forming a valid breakout. A bullish break above the trendline resistance could be a potential long opportunity targeting the 1.1000 market. However, a deeper correction is possible towards the 1.0750 level before forming another long signal.


The pound is attempting to recoup ground lost during Friday's US trading session, significantly influenced by a strong US employment report pushing the dollar higher. Notwithstanding this, the currency pair maintains a comparatively stable position for the week after enduring significant volatility in the preceding days.

March witnessed an extraordinary increase of 303K in US Nonfarm Payrolls, exceeding expectations of a 200K increase and signifying a robust employment quarter-end. Although wage inflation remains on the rise, a marginal deceleration in the annual rate (from 4.3% to 4.1% compared to the previous month) has allayed apprehensions regarding the Federal Reserve adopting an excessively aggressive position.

In the interim, data on feeble services sector activity in the United Kingdom contribute to the mounting evidence of an uncertain economic outlook. The Pound has been subject to downward pressure due to sluggish GDP growth and diminishing price pressures, which have fueled speculation that the Bank of England may contemplate implementing its first-rate cuts.


In the GBP/USD daily chart, a sell-side liquidity sweep is visible at the 200-day SMA line, suggesting a confluence bullish factor. Moreover, the RSI rebounded but stayed below the 50.00 mark.

In this context, another bullish push with a daily candle above the 50-day EMA could be a high probability of a long opportunity, targeting the 1.2800 level. The alternative approach is to seek a bearish opportunity after moving below the 1.2517 level.


Last Friday, Australia released unaltered Final Retail Sales and disappointing Trade Balance data, which ended the three-day winning streak of the Australian Dollar (AUD). Notwithstanding this, the AUD/USD pair was bolstered due to downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) after less robust labor market data from the United States.

Australia's Trade Surplus (Month-over-Month) decreased to 7,280 million in March, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported. This figure falls shy of the anticipated 10,400 million and February's recorded 10,058 million. Australia's exports experienced a month-on-month decline of 2.2% compared to the previous increase of 1.6%. In contrast, imports increased by 4.8%, up from 1.3%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) exhibited a persistently pessimistic outlook, mirroring the reduction in US Treasury yields. This trend may have been influenced by the neutral remarks made by several Federal Reserve officials. 

On the contrary, investors might have been drawn to the US Dollar despite market apprehension caused by the escalation of geopolitical tensions after Israel assaulted the Iranian embassy in Syria.


AUD/USD hovers at the trendline resistance while the RSI shifts its direction above the 50.00 line. In that case, a valid bullish breakout with a daily candle could offer a high probable long signal.

On the other hand, a minor downside correction is possible, but a break below the 0.6477 level could eliminate the bullish possibility.


Following the Japanese Yen's (JPY) ascent to a two-week high against the US Dollar (USD) earlier on Friday, it was again subject to selling pressure during the first half of the European trading session. Subsequently, it fell to a daily low. The prolonged purchasing of the USD over the weekend, bolstered by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, is responsible for this decline. Notwithstanding these factors, substantial declines seem confined due to the prevalent risk-averse sentiment, which customarily induces investors to seek sanctuary in the safe-haven JPY.

Furthermore, speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the currency markets to strengthen the domestic currency is anticipated to mitigate the JPY's decline. Furthermore, remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding the possibility of an interest rate increase as a reaction to the impact of JPY fluctuations on wages and inflation may deter bearish wagers on the JPY even further.


Despite the broader US Dollar weakness, JPY failed to show a remarkable recovery as the recent price hovers at an all-time high level.

As the RSi shows a minor rebound with a stable market above the dynamic 50-day EMA line, we may find another bull run after making a daily close above the 152.00 psychological line.


Gold prices reached a new all-time high on Friday, supported by speculative buying, ongoing central bank acquisitions, and bets on U.S. interest rate cuts. These factors sustained the metal's impressive rally despite March's robust employment growth in the United States.

In contrast to economists' forecasts, nonfarm payrolls expanded by 303,000 jobs last month, according to an employment report released by the Labor Department on Friday. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the central bank was not rushing to reduce borrowing costs and would maintain the current policy rate range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent.

High Ridge Futures' director of metals trading, David Meger, remarked, "The gold market continues to benefit from a favorable underlying environment despite lingering inflationary concerns later this year."

Traders have incorporated a 59% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June into their current pricing models. A reduction in interest rates mitigates the opportunity cost linked to the possession of gold.


The weaker US Dollar and geopolitical uncertainty were major bullish factors for XAU/USD. After the Non-farm payroll, the price shifted higher with more than 400 pips movement in H1 price.

A skeptic approach is needed before anticipating more long opportunities in this pair, as exhaustion could eliminate the bullish trend at any time. Primarily, any long opportunity in the intraday price, could be a high probable trading signal, aiming for the 2400.00 level.


During the previous week, Bitcoin (BTC) encountered obstacles in its attempt to surpass $69,000, signifying a consolidation stage for the preeminent cryptocurrency.

The relatively low level of volatility observed in Bitcoin's price fluctuations has generated conjecture regarding the possibility of a phase of inertia in its market path.

The cryptocurrency community has intently monitored Bitcoin's movements, particularly as it approaches critical resistance levels. Captain Faibik, a reputable crypto analyst, provides valuable insights illuminating the present state of affairs.

According to Captain Faibik, Bitcoin could be poised for a substantial breakout, assuming it survives the $70,000 level of resistance. "Bulls must Clear the $70,000 Resistance Area to Confirm the Upside Breakout," the analyst writes of Bitcoin.

A second crypto analyst, Jelle, echoes these sentiments, emphasizing the critical nature of investor patience in light of the impending Bitcoin halving.

The Halving occurs around every four years and is a predetermined occurrence in the Bitcoin protocol that diminishes the incentive for mining new BTC blocks.

Despite Bitcoin's recent consolidation, the crypto community is increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a rally surpassing $70,000, especially considering the halving event approaching in less than twenty days. Reducing the supply of newly issued Bitcoin frequently results in heightened demand and speculative purchasing.


Bitcoin became corrective at the top with no sign of exhaustion. It is a sign that long-term HODLers are not ready to offload their investment. However, the RSI rebounded and moved below the 50.00 line, while the 50-day EMA became closer to the 64441.00 static line.

In that case, a bullish continuation is potent, aiming for the 70000.00 mark. However, a break below the 64000.00 level might limit the gain by moving towards the 56000.00 area.

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