Forex Forecast & Forex Technical Outlook for 06 June 2022 to 10 June 2022

The European Central Bank may flag its first rate hike in more than a decade, while the RBA might follow the path with a 50 bps rate hike. However, the rate hike party needs to be monitored to find clues about the inflation ease. Last week, the US inflation was supported by the NFP, where the result came above the expectation of 325K. Although the average hourly earnings were stable at 0.3%, the the-better-than-expected NFP indicates that the US labor market is more durable than it should be. As a result, the US dollar was seen to rebound on Friday, and it may extend the sentiment in the coming days.

Forex Technical Outlook for 06 June 2022 to 10 June 2022

The week will start with the RBA interest rate decision, where the current projection is a 50 bps rate hike with a hawkish statement. On the other hand, the ECB might indicate the rate hike in the July meeting with an economic projection. Finally, the CAD employment report will appear on Friday before the US CPI, where both of this news would work as trend-changing events.

In the US Dollar index daily chart, the price found a bottom at 101.30 level from where a rebound with a bullish daily candle appeared. Therefore, investors should monitor how the price trades above this level, where a stable price above the dynamic 20 EMA could raise it towards the 103.88 area.

EUR/USD

On the weekly chart, the bullish sentiment in the EUR/USD is still active as the last week's close came as an inside bar, followed by two consecutive bullish candles. Although the current price remains within the descending channel, the RSI showed a rebound from the oversold 30 level with a possibility of reaching the 50 areas.

 

The above technical analysis is the daily chart of EURUSD where the current price formed bullish rejection from the dynamic 20 EMA. Moreover, multiple bullish candles above the 1.0620 level signify that bulls are still interested in this market. The bullish pre-breakout structure at the channel resistance awaits further confirmation before reaching the 1.0936 resistance level. In the indicator window, the RSI is still bullish, where the primary target is to test the overbought 70 level. 

This week, investors should monitor how the price corrects lower where any bullish opportunity from 1.0700 to 1.0610 area would be a potential bullish opportunity. In that case, the descending channel breakout may take the price towards the 1.0936 resistance level. On the other hand, the broader market direction remains bearish where any bearish daily candle below the 1.0600 level would open room for testing the 1.0400 area.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD bullish recovery is questioned by sellers' presence at the 1.2641 resistance level. The weekly candle closes with a bearish two-bar rejection while the RSI shifted its direction before reaching the 50 level.

 

This technical analysis shows the daily chart of GBP/USD where the current price trades corrective between 1.2476 to 1.2641 area. The RSI shifted its direction from the neutral 50 level in the indicator window while a bearish daily candle appeared below the dynamic 20 EMA.

Based on this structure, the current bearish pressure is backed by the bearish rejection at the 1.2641 resistance level. Therefore, any bearish daily candle below the 1.2476 support level would create intense selling pressure in the coming days. The main aim is to find the price at the 1.2200 area in the long run until it shows a strong position above the 1.2600 level.

AUD/USD

The weekly timeframe in the AUD/USD chart is extremely corrective, where the price showed a strong liquidity grab in May, above and below the 0.7263- 0.7050 range. On the other hand, the current price trades within 50% of the recent bearish swing while the weekly RSI is neutral 50 level. 

 

This technical analysis shows how the daily price is increasing with a bullish impulsive pressure. Although the NFP move became a barrier for bulls, the price closed the week with a bullish candle above the dynamic 20 EMA. Moreover, the RSI is still bullish above the neutral 50 level, possibly reaching the overbought 70 area.

Therefore, the AUD/USD price action indicates a bullish momentum where a considerable bearish correction is pending. Thus, the primary aim for this pair is to test the dynamic 20 EMA or static 0.7142 level from which bulls may regain momentum.

USD/JPY

The recent bullish pressure in the USD/JPY came from several bearish corrective candles where last Friday’s daily candle eliminated all losses in the previous three trading days. On the weekly chart, last week's price action was very impulsive, supported by the overextended RSI. As the weekly RSI failed to move below the 70 level, another upside pressure in the price may come with a new weekly swing high.

 

The above technical analysis shows the daily USDJPY price where the recent descending channel breakout with multiple higher highs above the dynamic 20 EMA indicates a bullish opportunity. Moreover, the RSI remained stable above the neutral 50 level, where the test of the overbought 70 level is still pending.

Based on the daily context, investors should monitor the intraday price action based on the daily context to find a potential bullish opportunity. In that case, the buying opportunity may extend as long as the price trades above the 129.00 key support level.

XAU/USD 

XAU/USD bullish momentum initiated from the exhaustion at 1800.00 psychological level that pushed the price above the dynamic 20 EMA. However, the NFP-driven sentiment made the US dollar stronger, eliminating all early weekly gains for Gold.

 

This technical analysis shows how the XAUUSD extended its corrective momentum within the rectangle pattern where multiple violations of dynamic 20 EMA are present. In the indicator window, the RSI remained corrective at the neutral 50 level, indicating further volatility where any trading opportunity might come with a breakout. 

Based on the XAUUSD price action, any bullish rejection from the channel support would be the primary bullish opportunity in this pair. However, the rebound in US Dollar might eliminate the current bullish outlook where a daily candle below the 1837.60 support would lower the price towards the 1800.00 area.

BTC/USD

According to a prominent analyst, Bitcoin price might find a new bottom at the $24K level, followed by a fresh sell-off. Other indicators like Bitcoin’s Logarithmic Growth Curve channel, RSI, and MACD also signal a selling pressure for the coming months. 

However, the bearish outlook in the BTC/USD price does not explain how smart money or market maker are looking. In general, the brutal crash often occurs to grab retail liquidity so that the smart money can fill up their orders. The most recent price action shows some strong weekly bearish candles with no sign of recovery. 

According to some on-chain metrics, Bitcoin retail investors face a panic from the macro bearish trend. Since 9 May 2022, the number of BTC inflow to exchanges was increased where the net flow came to 72,815 on 1 June. It is a sign that retailers have started panic selling with a fear of a further fall in the BTC price.

 

This technical analysis shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, where the most recent price remained extremely corrective above the 28671.42 support level.  Moreover, the dynamic 20 EMA is above the price, working as immediate resistance. The current RSI level is also supportive for bears as it shifted the direction after testing the neutral 50 level.

Based on this price structure, investors should closely monitor how the price trades at the 28671.42 support level, where a bearish daily candle below the 28,000.00 level would be a bearish opportunity with the target towards the 24,000.00 level.

Overall, the strong rebound in the US Dollar may extend in the coming trading days where a lot of volatility awaits from the RBA and ECB rate decisions. Finally, the US CPI report will provide further hints about the US inflation, indicating the global macro trend.

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