Forex Forecast & Forex Technical Outlook for 04 April 2022 to 08 April 2022

In the Eurozone economy, the rising inflation continues to be a matter of tension. As per last week’s report, the German CPI reached 7.3% YoY in March, while the inflation is nearly at 10% in Spain. As a result, the European Central Bank members showed a sign of raising this interest rate this year, boosting the Euro. Moreover, further relief came from the Ukraine -Russia crisis as Moscow showed a decreased military activity near Kyiv.

In the US, the economy gained 431K new jobs in April, which is below the expectation of 490K. However, the top ward revision and higher wages came to support the US economy. On the other hand, the speculation about the Federal Reserve's upcoming movement remains intact. After several calls for a double-digit rate hike, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic showed a cautious tone regarding the war-driven risk. However, market participants still believe that the rate hike of 50 bps will take place in May. 

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Forex Technical Outlook for 04 April 2022 to 08 April 2022

In the economic calendar, the Fed will be asked about how they are raising the interest rate by 50 bps in May. The protocol from the Fed’s lift-off might reveal anxiety to act faster on rate hikes. The ISM Services PMI also will be interesting where economists are expecting an increase in value from February’s 56.5 points. Moreover, the RBA will meet on Tuesday when no change in the official cash rate is expected. On Friday, the Canadian unemployment rate may come lower than the expectation, which may initiate immediate buying pressure in USDCAD.

It is the third time that the USD index failed to move below the static 97.79 support level and rebounded with a daily two-bar rejection. Moreover, the last daily candle closed above the dynamic 20 EMA, indicating a strong buyers presence. As the price was stable above the 97.79 support level, we may expect another upside pressure towards the 100.00 psychological area. On the other hand, a break below the 97.45 level with a bearish solid daily close would alter the current market structure and lower the price towards the 96.00 area.

EUR/USD

Although EUR/USD showed a nice bullish breakout from the bearish channel with impulsive pressure, the buying momentum failed to hold above the 1.1124 resistance level. As a result, the price immediately rebounded lower, and finally, the NFP sentiment made a new low, just below the dynamic 20 EMA.

 

This technical analysis shows how the price made a bearish two-bar rejection from the 1.1124 resistance level and moved lower. Meanwhile, the RSI created a rebound from the 50 level, indicating selling pressure towards the 30 area. 

In this context, we can aim for the future price direction from the 1.1124 level. The primary target of the bearish pressure will be towards the 1.0900 area. The bearish possibility is valid as long as the price trades below the 1.1124 level. A bullish daily candle above this level would alter the current market structure and take the price up towards the 1.1300 area.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD bearish possibility has become solid as the recent pierce action failed to hold the bullish momentum above the dynamic 20 EMA. The price rebounded immediately and formed multiple bearish rejection candles at the 1.3176 resistance level. Therefore, as long as the price trades below the 1.3176 level, it may extend the selling pressure towards the 1.3000 area.

 

This technical analysis shows that the RSI is still bearish as it failed to breach the neutral 50 level. Moreover, the price found the 20 EMA as a confluence resistance that may increase the selling momentum.

In this context, bears may regain the momentum to lower the price towards the 1.3000 area in the coming days. However, the bearish sentiment is valid as long as the price trades below the dynamic 20 EMA in the daily chart. A bullish candle above the 1.3200 level might alter the current market structure and increase the price towards the 1.3300 area.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD reached the long-term supply area at 0.7555 to 0.7520 zone, from where intense selling pressure may come. However, the price stalled in this area instead of making a new low below the 0.7470 level.

 

The above technical analysis shows how the price consolidates at the daily supply area while the RSI is just below the overbought 70 level. Moreover, the dynamic 20 EMA is below the price with an 84 pips gap with the current price.

The current price structure is tricky for investors where the possibility of grabbing liquidity from 0.7555 to 0.7600 area is high. In that case, investors should wait for the price to break below the 0.7470 level before going short. On the other hand, a false break above the 0.7550 would be another selling opportunity where the primary target will be towards the 0.7400 level.

USD/JPY

The impulsive bullish pressure in the USD/JPY price became questionable from the exhaustion at the 125.13 level from where a long wicked candle appeared. Later on, the price corrected lower and made a base at 121.15 level.

 

The above technical analysis shows an extremely bullish RSI level that went above the 70 level before aiming lower. It is a sign that bulls became aggressive in the price but failed to hold the momentum active with a possibility of a bearish correction. Meanwhile, the dynamic 20 EMA is below the price that may work as confluence support after a considerable correction.

In this week, the bearish possibility in this pair is valid as long as it trades below the 123.22 resistance level. However, investors should remain cautious about the broader market trend, which is extremely bullish. In that case, any trading decisions from a lower timeframe confirmation might provide a higher success rate.

XAU/USD 

The XAU/USD price has become volatile in recent trading days, where multiple violations of the dynamic 20 EMA are seen. However, the week was closed with a daily bearish candle below the dynamic resistance, which may increase the bearish pressure towards the 1888.00 support level.

 

The above technical analysis shows how the RSI rebounded from the overbought 70 level and moved to the 50 area. In that case, any new low in RIS below the 45 level would increase the selling pressure on the price.

Therefore, bearish should find selling opportunities from the lower timeframe confirmation where the main aim is to test the 1888.00 level. On the other hand, a bullish break of structure above the 1966.00 level would alter the current market trend with an upside pressure towards the 2000.00 area.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin's bullish factor has become solid as the recent price moved higher above the equal high of 45,407.35. Moreover, the bullish break of structure is backed by four consecutive higher lows since 13 January 2022. The dynamic 20 EMA also supports the bullish factor at the 45,000.00 level, which may be a solid bullish factor for BTC.

The most important index to define the current Bitcoin price prediction is the recent uptick of whales accumulating BTC. BTC/USD price dropped from $66K to $34K on 12 November 2021, while whales holding from 10K to 100K BTC have been busy accumulating. On the other hand, another metric, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), that shows the average profit/loss of investors who bought BTC a year ago remains positive. It is a sign that bulls are holding the momentum, and the price may increase.

 

The above technical analysis shows how the BTCUSD price moved higher from the symmetrical triangle breakout and firmly held above the dynamic 20 EMA. Meanwhile, the RSI is above the 50 level, indicating a strong buying momentum in the price.

In this context, investors may experience intense buying pressure in the BTCUSD price where the primary aim is to test the 52128.64 resistance level. On the other hand, a rebound and break below the dynamic 20 EMA might alter the current market structure and initiate a consolidation.

Overall, the Non-farm payroll failed to show a better-than-expected result last week where a US Dollar correction is pending. In that case, investors might experience a corrective price momentum in major pairs where any uncertainty from Moscow would increase the volatility of the price.

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