Forex Forecast

The uncertain outcome of the debt ceiling agreement has rendered the near-term economic outlook uncertain. Recent data indicate, however, that the actual economy is exhibiting resilience. Stabilization in new home sales and orders for durable products, as well as an unexpected increase in real personal spending, are positive indicators. The FOMC considers the natural rate…

The most recent economic data indicate that the U.S. economy is gradually decelerating. Despite this, consumer spending remains stable, and industrial and housing activity shows evidence of stability. In spite of the fact that we continue to anticipate a recession by the end of the year, it is undeniable that the data reveals an underlying…

The United States continues to grapple with high inflation, as evidenced by the 0.4% increase in the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April, with the three-month annualized rate for the core remaining at 5.1%. Nevertheless, the Producer Price Index and the NFIB small business survey suggest that future price growth may moderate,…

Employers added 253K positions in April, resulting in a 3.4% decrease in the unemployment rate. The ISM services index increased to 51.9 in the same month that the ISM manufacturing index increased to 47.0. However, job openings decreased to 9.6 million in March, and non-farm productivity fell 2.7% in the first quarter while unit labor…

The US GDP grew by 1.1% in the first quarter, below expectations, although consumption data was positive. The fact that wage inflation increased more than anticipated, but consumer inflation rebounded only modestly. It is a sign that the fight against inflation continues.  Numerous analysts and economists predict an imminent recession, causing the markets to oscillate…

Last week’s data supports a second-half recession. The LEI continues to decline, indicating labor market weakness. Home data also shows that the home market is far from recovering. According to analysts, one more quarter-point rate hike may come at the May 3 FOMC meeting as the most rapid policy tightening since the early 1980s winds…

The data from last week suggest that the U.S. economy is losing momentum. In March, retail sales decreased by 1.0%, industrial production fell by 0.5%, and the consumer price index rose by a meager 0.1%. Recent market volatility has decreased, but inflationary pressures remain elevated. It is a reason to believe that the FOMC will…

Initially, investors favored a rate hike by the Fed at its upcoming May meeting, but disappointing US data throughout the last week has cast doubt on the best course of action.  The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys revealed disappointment in employment and price levels. The outlook for the labor market also deteriorated, as the…

After weeks of turmoil, there were signs of market stabilization this last week. Although consumers appear unaffected, there is an anticipation that stricter credit conditions in the future will impede growth. Moreover, the persistently high rate of inflation strengthens the case for a 25 basis point rate hike in May. New data from the New…

The Fed is especially concerned about service inflation, and Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that there had been no progress in that area when housing components were excluded. The core PCE price index, which the Fed pays more attention to, will also be closely watched, and any surprises could affect the chances of a rate…